美联储议息会议临近 美元指数陷关键博弈

Core Viewpoint - The USD index has shown significant downward volatility since December 2025, currently fluctuating around 99.10, down 1.2% from its late November peak, with the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 9-10 being a key catalyst for its future movement [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is a critical internal variable determining the USD index's movement, with an 89.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 71% a week prior [1] - The expectation of a more accommodative monetary policy is fueled by moderate U.S. economic data, including cooling employment momentum and weak manufacturing activity, alongside inflation levels returning to a more acceptable range for the Fed [1] - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, who aligns with dovish policies, has intensified downward pressure on the USD, reflecting political influences on monetary policy [1] Group 2: Support Factors for USD - Despite the downward trend, the USD index is somewhat supported by the relative weakness of non-USD currencies, particularly the Euro, which has been affected by stagnant economic growth in Germany and political crises in France [2] - The Japanese Yen has weakened due to concerns over debt from economic stimulus plans, while the British Pound faces pressure from rising unemployment and budgetary concerns, which collectively bolster the USD's upward momentum [2] - Positive signals from recent U.S. economic data, such as an increase in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index from 51.0 to 53.3, may partially offset the downward pressure on the USD [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is significant divergence in forecasts regarding the USD index's future trajectory, with some analysts predicting a "down then up" pattern in December due to upcoming GDP data releases [3] - Structural factors such as rising U.S. debt, potential interventions in Fed independence, and global de-dollarization trends could undermine confidence in the USD in the long term [3] - Key variables influencing the USD index will include the Fed's rate decision, Chairman Powell's statements during the press conference, and the final nomination of the Fed Chair by the Trump administration, with expected increased volatility in the forex market around the meeting [3]