炭黑价格后续上涨乏力

Core Viewpoint - The carbon black market is experiencing a slight rebound due to rising raw material prices and a decline in industry operating rates, with expectations of price fluctuations in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 4, the mainstream price for N330 carbon black in Shandong, East China, is 5,900 yuan per ton, an increase of 300 yuan since November 3 [1]. - The high-temperature coal tar market has seen multiple rounds of price increases since mid-November, directly raising production costs for carbon black [2]. - The price of high-temperature coal tar, which constitutes 60%-70% of carbon black production costs, has increased, exerting significant cost pressure on the carbon black industry [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The carbon black market is expected to maintain a state of ample supply in 2025, with high inventory levels from the beginning of the year leading to a supply surplus [3]. - Despite a slight decrease in production due to reduced operations among small and medium-sized enterprises, carbon black output remains at a high level compared to the past five years [3]. - The demand for carbon black is showing a mixed trend, with an increase in demand for all-steel tires but a decline in demand for semi-steel tires and related products, limiting the overall consumption growth [3]. Group 3: Industry Performance - The operating rate of carbon black enterprises has slightly increased due to supply guarantee policies, reaching 70.22% as of December 4, up 0.55 percentage points from the previous week [4]. - The profitability of carbon black enterprises is under continuous pressure due to high raw material prices and weak product price increases, with theoretical profits for N330 carbon black in Shandong at -696 yuan as of December 4 [5]. - Despite the intention to raise carbon black prices, strong resistance from downstream enterprises against high quotes is limiting the upward movement of prices, leading to an expanded loss margin in the industry [5].