11月：终端需求转弱 景气指数回调

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index decreased to 97.21 in November, down 2.58 percentage points from October, ending a two-month recovery period. The core logic of industry operation has changed, with weakened dual drivers of "demand improvement" and "cost dividends," leading to a seasonal demand decline across the industry [2][8]. Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's prosperity index is at 96.72, a slight decrease of 0.23 percentage points, remaining in a low normal range. The global supply remains ample, and the decline in geopolitical risk premium has led to continued weak oil prices, resulting in a "price drop and profit shrinkage" scenario [9]. - The fuel processing industry's prosperity index plummeted to 94.68, a significant drop of 10.47 percentage points, indicating a shift from a hot to a cold state due to a sharp decline in terminal demand after the peak season [9]. - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector's prosperity index rose to 102.37, an increase of 1.16 percentage points, benefiting from low raw material costs and stable demand, acting as a stabilizer for the overall industry [9]. - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing sector's prosperity index fell to 93.95, down 1.39 percentage points, reflecting insufficient terminal consumer demand after promotional activities [9]. Market Trends - Geopolitical risks have decreased, contributing to a decline in oil prices. The ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have altered market expectations, leading to a significant reduction in the risk premium associated with geopolitical conflicts [3][13]. - Fluctuations in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve have increased price volatility risks in the petrochemical industry. Uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic "soft landing" has negatively impacted the industry's raw material procurement and cost management [4][15]. Future Outlook - The petrochemical industry is expected to face continued pressure from seasonal demand decline in December, with weak global oil prices likely to persist, further squeezing upstream profits. The overall industry is anticipated to lack strong upward momentum, with a slight decrease in the prosperity index expected [16].