华安基金：中国央行购金延续，本周将迎美联储利率决议

Group 1: Gold Market Overview and Key Insights - Gold prices experienced narrow fluctuations last week, with London spot gold closing at $4,197 per ounce (down 0.5% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 957 yuan per gram (up 0.9% week-on-week) [1][6] - The U.S. National Security Strategy, released on December 5, emphasizes "America First," potentially exacerbating de-globalization trends. This document prioritizes U.S. domestic security and reshapes trade relations, which may harm the international standing of the dollar and enhance the monetary value of gold [1][6] - The Federal Reserve is in a long-term rate-cutting cycle, with an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut expected in the December 11 meeting. Market participants should pay attention to the Fed's guidance on the rate-cutting pace for the following year [1][6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence and Its Implications - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may have deeper implications for the U.S. financial system. Predictions indicate that Hassett, a close ally of Trump, has over a 70% chance of being appointed as the next Fed Chair, which could lead to aggressive rate cuts aligned with Trump's policies [2][7] - A loss of Fed independence could exacerbate domestic inflation and erode the purchasing power of the dollar, undermining global trust in the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, which may impact gold as a decentralized and non-political "real currency" [2][7] Group 3: China's Gold Reserves and Future Outlook - China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves, reporting 7,412 million ounces at the end of November, a rise of 30,000 ounces, marking the 13th consecutive month of increases. The current gold reserve ratio is approximately 7%, below the global average, indicating potential for further accumulation [2][7] - Looking ahead, if a dovish Fed Chair is appointed, the pace of rate cuts may become more aggressive, which could be favorable for gold. Additionally, the U.S. is in a phase of both monetary and fiscal expansion, with ongoing credit risks related to U.S. debt, prompting global central banks to continue purchasing gold to diversify their foreign exchange reserves [2][7] Group 4: Upcoming Signals for Gold ETF - Key signals to watch for the upcoming week regarding the gold ETF (518880) include the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision and the U.S. November CPI [3][8]