Qi Lu Wan Bao·2025-12-09 03:29Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock experienced a significant decline, dropping nearly 10% on December 8, with a total decrease of approximately 40% from its peak, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over 180 billion HKD [1][12]. Group 1: Sales Performance Concerns - Investors are worried that Pop Mart's sales performance during the U.S. "Black Friday" promotions may fall short of expectations [3]. - The launch of the Labubu new product on November 13 saw a noticeable decline in market interest, with the premium on hidden items shrinking by over 50%, and regular items selling below official retail prices on secondary markets [3][12]. - Analysts from Morningstar indicated that weak U.S. sales could undermine market confidence in Pop Mart's growth prospects, especially following a reported year-on-year sales surge of over 1200% in the third quarter [5]. Group 2: Short Selling and Market Sentiment - Pop Mart has faced increased short selling, with short positions rising from 1.11 million shares to 1.62 million shares since December 2, and the short selling amount increasing by 210.58% to 1.09 billion HKD [12]. - Bernstein analysts noted that the decline in stock price is largely attributed to weak North American sales trends in November, estimating that U.S. sales growth has slowed to below 500% for the current quarter [12]. - The consumer team at Cinda Securities observed that sales data during the Thanksgiving week showed no significant growth, indicating a "weak peak season" [12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite concerns, Cinda Securities emphasized that high-frequency data may not accurately reflect actual sales, as it is based on credit and debit card sampling and may be subject to later revisions [13]. - The company clarified that only 3% of its consumers are "scalpers," and its supply chain strategy focuses on ensuring genuine consumers can purchase products rather than relying on marketing hype [13]. - Excluding the U.S. market, regions such as Europe, China, and Southeast Asia continue to show positive growth trends, indicating balanced global development [13].