中金：持续看好钨价牛市 钨业龙头配置价值有望凸显

Industry Overview - Tungsten prices have entered a bullish trend since mid-October, reaching a historical high of 351,000 yuan/ton by December 5, representing a year-to-date increase of 147% from 142,000 yuan/ton in March [1] - The demand for restocking is expected to remain strong, with global tungsten supply projected to remain tight over the next 3-5 years [1] Price Transmission to Downstream - The transmission of tungsten prices to APT and tungsten powder has been smooth, with processing fees significantly higher than at the beginning of the year [2] - Downstream companies have successfully passed on price increases through product price hikes and new product launches, leading to improved gross margins [2] - In Q3 2025, integrated tungsten companies reported a gross margin of 19.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while leading tool manufacturers achieved a gross margin of 37.7%, up 3.8 percentage points [2] Inventory Situation in the Supply Chain - Inventory levels among producers have decreased to low levels, with domestic APT and tungsten carbide producers holding 800 tons and 1,027 tons respectively, down 31% and 36% month-on-month [3] - Downstream companies have experienced smooth sales in Q3, with no significant stockpiling of raw materials, supporting the expectation for strong restocking demand [3] Export Policy Impact - The impact of export policies on tungsten product exports is considered limited, with expectations for an increase in the export share of high-value-added products [4] - In February, following the announcement of export policies, tungsten product exports dropped by 50% to 868 tons, but have stabilized from March to October with an average monthly export of 1,591 tons, recovering to 84% of the average monthly value in 2024 [4] - The proportion of tungsten products affected by policies from January to October was 20.5%, down 20.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] Global Supply Dynamics - Domestic tungsten supply remains tight due to declining ore grades and stricter regulations, while overseas supply, except for Kazakhstan, has significant uncertainty and slow growth [5] - Global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight over the next 3-5 years, with strategic actions from various countries regarding tungsten resources warranting attention [5]