博时宏观观点：市场方向有望更加明确，守望春季躁动

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In the US, November PMI shows weak manufacturing but strong services, indicating overall stable growth [1] - The market is fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in December, with expectations of a signal to pause further cuts afterward [1] - Japan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates, leading to an increase in bond yields and greater asset volatility [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's November manufacturing PMI shows a marginal recovery but remains seasonally weak, while the services PMI has declined again [1] - Supply and demand indicators have shown marginal improvement, and price indicators have also recovered, reflecting that the foundation for domestic demand recovery still needs further consolidation [1] - There is a noticeable increase in expectations for stable real estate policies, which could further support demand and expectations if implemented [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - In the bond market, there was a loosening of liquidity across months, with reports indicating the central bank's strategy of "short-term collection and long-term release," leading to weak sentiment in the bond market [1] - The overnight funding price fell below 1.3%, suggesting that the central bank's strategy is aimed at preventing fund turnover and reducing bank liability costs, rather than tightening monetary policy [1] - The fundamental and liquidity conditions remain favorable for the bond market, but the lack of bullish momentum may keep interest rates in a fluctuating pattern [1] Group 4: A-share Market - The A-share market has been fluctuating without clear policy guidance, with trading volume continuing to decline [2] - There is a slight reversal in style, with a rebound in the previously corrected technology growth sector [2] - Looking ahead to December, the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and FOMC meeting are expected to provide clearer market direction [2] Group 5: Hong Kong Market and Commodities - Following the December FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in rate cuts, which could temporarily hinder capital inflow into the Hong Kong market [3] - In the oil market, initial rate cuts may not boost demand, as supply continues to be released and inventories accumulate, keeping prices under pressure [3] Group 6: Gold Market - The potential pause in rate cuts after the December FOMC meeting may cause short-term disturbances in gold prices, but the long-term development trend remains positive [3]