降息板上钉钉但鹰派悬念待解 黄金高位静候点阵图

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, but the tone of the monetary policy statement and dot plot will be crucial for future market direction [1][2] Group 1: Market Expectations - The probability of a rate cut has surged from 66% last month to 90% currently, indicating strong market expectations for a dovish path [2] - If the Federal Reserve emphasizes economic resilience or persistent inflation during the rate cut, it may lead to a "hawkish cut," potentially keeping gold prices under pressure [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic data, including the U.S. employment report and JOLTS job openings data, will be released before the rate decision, particularly focusing on hiring trends from September to October [2] Group 3: Global Uncertainties - Global geopolitical uncertainties are providing potential support for gold prices, as tensions between countries increase the appeal of safe-haven assets [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have faced resistance above $4250 and are currently in a slight correction phase, with market participants awaiting policy guidance [3] - The MACD indicator shows diminishing momentum, suggesting a potential short-term bearish trend, with critical support at $4180 and possible declines to the $4155-$4120 range if broken [3] - Conversely, if the Federal Reserve signals further easing, gold prices could aim for the $4220-$4250 resistance zone [3][4]