中东发电旺季结束 燃料油期货行情呈震荡下行走势

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for crude oil is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in the fuel oil sector, with significant price fluctuations observed in recent trading sessions [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for fuel oil opened at 2470.00 yuan/ton and showed weak performance, with a maximum price of 2482.00 yuan and a minimum of 2399.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of approximately 3.03% [1]. - The fuel oil market is currently characterized by a weak and fluctuating trend, indicating ongoing pressure on prices [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Everbright Futures, the Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to increased supply from replenishment of crude oil components and a rise in arbitrage flows, coupled with weak downstream demand in the Singapore hub [2]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is also facing challenges, primarily due to ample arbitrage cargo arrivals and high inventory levels at Singapore and Fujairah ports, suggesting that supply-driven market fundamentals may persist into January [2]. - Goldwind Futures noted a significant drop in global heavy oil discounts, with the Dar Blend crude discount falling to -6.75 USD/barrel, indicating increased pressure on low-sulfur fuel oil prices [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The processing demand from domestic refineries and the U.S. is gradually declining, while ship fuel demand is also receding from high levels, suggesting a potential reduction in fuel procurement needs in Egypt next summer [3]. - The market sentiment remains cautious, with a recommendation to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding future price movements [2].