Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-12-09 06:13Core Viewpoint - In November, the domestic passenger car market experienced a year-on-year decline in retail sales by 8.1%, contrasting with the typical year-end sales surge seen in previous years. The total retail sales for the year reached approximately 21.48 million units, reflecting a 6.1% increase year-on-year [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The retail sales volume in November was about 2.225 million units, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% [1]. - The cumulative growth rate of retail sales for the year showed fluctuations, with a 1.2% increase from January to February, a 15% increase from March to June, and a decline in growth to around 6% from July to September [3]. - The decline in November sales is attributed to a high base effect from previous quarters, aligning with earlier predictions of a "low-middle-high-flat" trend for the year [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy has been a significant factor in regulating market growth, with over 11.2 million applications for subsidies by October 22, 2023 [3]. - The average daily subsidy scale dropped to 30,000 units in November due to the suspension of subsidies in various regions, indicating a clear effect on growth adjustment [3]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - In November, the number of manufacturers with monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units for NEVs rose to 22, accounting for 94.2% of total NEV sales for the month [4]. - The total sales of NEVs reached 1.321 million units in November, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with a penetration rate of 59.3% in the overall passenger car market, up 7 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - The penetration rate for domestic brands' NEVs was 79.6%, while luxury brands and mainstream joint ventures had penetration rates of 38.8% and 8%, respectively [4]. Group 4: Export Trends - NEV exports reached 284,000 units in November, representing a year-on-year increase of 243.3%, making up 47.3% of the total export market [7]. - The share of pure electric vehicles in NEV exports decreased to 57%, while plug-in hybrid models increased to 42% [7]. - The export of complete vehicles has also driven growth in battery exports, with a total of 7.039 million kWh of electricity used for NEV exports and wholesale in November [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The retail share of new forces in the market reached 22.1% in November, an increase of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, with pure electric models accounting for 72.8% of new force sales [9]. - Predictions for December suggest a relatively stable market, with potential for slight negative growth, influenced by consumer urgency due to upcoming changes in vehicle purchase tax policies [9]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the market is expected to face significant pressure due to changes in tax incentives, with a projected reduction in tax benefits leading to a potential decline in growth [9].