动力煤：供需格局或先松后紧，煤价存降后企稳可能

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal market in China has been experiencing a continuous decline in prices since December, influenced by a loose supply-demand balance, but there is potential for stabilization after the price drop as production tightens [1][6]. Supply Side Analysis - As of early December, major coal mines in China maintained stable production, and private coal mines that had paused production resumed operations, leading to an overall sufficient supply of coal [3][4]. - Coal inventories at major transfer ports have been steadily increasing, with the inventory at the three northern ports reaching 26.75 million tons by December 5, an increase of 1.49 million tons or 5.9% from the end of November [4][5]. - The expectation is that coal production may initially increase but will likely decrease as the month progresses due to heightened safety awareness and completion of annual production tasks [4][6]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand from coal-consuming enterprises has been weak, with companies reluctant to purchase at high prices, primarily meeting only essential needs [3][5]. - The trading atmosphere has been subdued, with market participants showing low willingness to trade, leading to a lack of effective support for the market [5]. - However, as prices continue to decline, there may be an increase in speculative buying from traders, and the demand from the power generation sector could improve as temperatures drop, leading to higher electricity loads [5][6]. Future Outlook - The coal price is expected to experience a weak adjustment before stabilizing, influenced by the anticipated tightening of the supply-demand balance [4][6]. - The timeline for these changes is projected to occur around December 15 [6].