2026年英国经济展望：政治财政风险交织 经济如履薄冰

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The core issue for the UK economy in 2026 is whether consumer spending can recover from its current low levels, with research suggesting households may increase spending, but recent trends indicate otherwise [1][6] - The economic growth rate for 2026 is projected to be 1.2%, slightly lower than 1.4% in 2025, with a quarterly average growth rate of 0.3% anticipated [1][6] - The inflation rate is expected to decrease from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, primarily due to the exclusion of several one-off factors in the annual comparison starting in April [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - A key factor influencing the UK economic outlook is the willingness of consumers to spend, which has been notably cautious compared to US households [2][7] - The current increase in the savings rate is expected to stabilize around a balanced level of approximately 9.25%, impacting future consumption predictions [2][7] - The recent budget proposal has delayed the implementation of new fiscal tightening measures, leading to an upward revision of the annual growth forecast from 1.1% to 1.2% [2][7] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The average annual CPI increase is now forecasted at 2.3%, down from a previous estimate of 2.5%, reflecting government measures to lower energy bills starting in April [3][8] - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 5.2% in the first half of 2026, which may lead to wage growth slowing to around 3% over the next 12 months [3][8] - The Bank of England is expected to lower the policy interest rate from 4.0% to 3.5% by the end of 2026, with potential rate cuts occurring in December and April [1][3][8]