动力煤供需格局或先松后紧 价格存企稳可能

Group 1 - The domestic coal market in China has been experiencing a loose supply-demand situation since December, leading to a continuous decline in coal prices, with the price of Shanxi Datong Q5500 thermal coal dropping by 40 RMB/ton to a range of 615-655 RMB/ton as of December 5, representing a decrease of 5.93% from the end of November [1][3] - The supply side remains stable, with major coal mines maintaining production levels and private coal mines resuming operations, resulting in an overall sufficient supply of coal in the market [3] - Demand from coal-consuming enterprises is weak, as they are resistant to high prices and primarily meet just-in-time needs, leading to limited speculative demand from traders, which further contributes to the downward pressure on coal prices [3] Group 2 - Coal inventory at the three northern ports has been steadily increasing, reaching 26.75 million tons as of December 5, an increase of 1.49 million tons or 5.9% from the end of November, which supports coastal coal demand [4] - Despite the increase in coal inventory, the expectation of tightening supply in the latter half of December may limit the inflow of coal resources to the ports, leading to a potential decrease in inventory levels [4] - The price advantage of imported coal over domestic coal remains significant, with Indonesian Q3800 thermal coal being 68 RMB/ton cheaper than domestic coal, leading to continued high levels of imports to supplement domestic supply [4] Group 3 - As coal prices continue to decline, some traders may begin to show interest in bottom-fishing, while non-electricity sector enterprises may see improved production enthusiasm due to lower coal costs, potentially increasing coal demand [5] - The electricity sector is expected to see an increase in coal consumption as temperatures drop and power plant loads rise, with the operating rate of major power plants in Shandong at around 78%, indicating room for improvement [6] - Overall, the supply-demand situation in the domestic coal market may shift from loose to tightening, with coal prices expected to stabilize after a period of decline, likely around December 15 [6]