基本面供需双弱 预计短期螺纹钢窄幅整理运行为主

Market Review - Rebar futures experienced a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 3123 yuan/ton, down 1.30% [1] Fundamental Summary - During the survey period (December 2 - December 8), the operating rate and capacity utilization of rebar rolling lines in the Central China region decreased, as did those of wire rod rolling lines [2] - On December 9, the price of rebar from Zhongtian was 3240 yuan/ton, with a total shipment of 49,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the same period last week. Hangzhou's rebar inventory was 766,000 tons, a decrease of 136,000 tons from the previous week [2] - Sichuan Desheng began maintenance on a 1250m blast furnace on December 8, expected to last 7 days, impacting total rebar production by approximately 30,000 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Hengtai Futures, the supply side is constrained by weak seasonal demand for steel and poor profitability for steel mills, leading to reduced production and a decline in average daily pig iron output. The demand side is also weak, with a slowdown in cement and concrete dispatch and construction demand, resulting in a marginal decline in rebar demand. Both supply and demand are decreasing, with inventory still showing a trend of reduction. The short-term macroeconomic outlook is weakening, and the steel market is expected to continue a weak trading pattern during the off-season, with winter storage as a marginal variable. The current price level is considered undervalued, suggesting a short-term consolidation trend [3] - According to Everbright Futures, steel exports remain at a high level, alleviating some market supply pressure. The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for stable economic work next year, continuing to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. There is an expectation for further macroeconomic easing, which may boost market sentiment. However, recent significant declines in coal and coke prices have negatively impacted the black commodity sector. The short-term outlook for rebar is expected to remain in a narrow consolidation range [3]