库存端表现相对较好 铝价底部支撑较强

Group 1 - The main aluminum futures contract in Shanghai closed at 21,775.00 CNY/ton, experiencing a decline of 1.67% [1] - In the first week of December 2025, Brazil exported a total of 0.05 million tons of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate, a significant decrease from 31.96 million tons in December of the previous year [2] - The daily shipping volume averaged 0.01 million tons per day, down 99.3% compared to 1.52 million tons per day in December of the previous year [2] Group 2 - The Chongqing Ecological Environment Bureau issued a yellow alert for heavy pollution, requiring industrial enterprises to reduce production loads, suspend operations, and enhance pollution control measures [2] - As a result of the pollution alert, some recycled aluminum companies have begun to suspend operations or reduce production loads [2] - The price range for remelted aluminum ingots (Al99.7) was 21,860-21,900 CNY/ton, with an average price of 21,880 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous day [2] Group 3 - Dongwu Futures noted that macroeconomic factors are dominating, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and a weakening dollar boosting non-ferrous metal prices, including aluminum [3] - The current market is characterized by subdued trading activity, with high prices and seasonal demand weakness leading to a focus on essential purchases by downstream enterprises [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, and while demand is in a seasonal lull, the resilience of end-user consumption and low inventory levels provide strong support for aluminum prices [3] Group 4 - Zhongcai Futures highlighted that the consensus in the market is leaning towards a continued rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with significant declines in private employment data and ongoing contraction in manufacturing PMI reinforcing expectations for policy shifts [3] - The London aluminum market continues to see inventory reductions, with Shanghai aluminum showing a decrease of 0.2 million tons compared to the previous week, indicating relatively strong performance [3] - However, due to the current off-season, high prices may exert pressure on demand, and further price increases could face resistance, with attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [3]