邦达亚洲:澳洲联储如期按兵不动 澳元小幅收涨

Group 1: US Consumer Inflation Expectations - The New York Fed's survey indicates that US consumer inflation expectations remained stable in November, with a one-year inflation expectation of 3.2% and three- and five-year expectations also at 3% [1][7]. - Respondents' perception of unemployment probability decreased to 13.8%, marking the lowest level of the year [1][7]. - There is a general market expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower the benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time to prevent deterioration in the labor market [1][7]. Group 2: Australian Central Bank Policy - The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its cash rate target at 3.60%, aligning with market expectations [2][8]. - RBA Governor Philip Lowe emphasized the need for caution regarding monthly CPI data, stating that inflation and employment data will be crucial for the February meeting [2][8]. - The RBA sees an upward bias in inflation risks and has not ruled out the possibility of tightening policy if inflation remains high [2][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Currency Movements - Gold prices experienced a slight decline, trading around 4180, influenced by profit-taking and a rebound in the US dollar index due to expectations of a hawkish signal from the Fed [4][9]. - The Australian dollar also saw a slight decrease, trading around 0.6650, affected by profit-taking and the strengthening US dollar [5][10]. - The USD/CAD pair rose slightly, trading around 1.3850, supported by technical buying and a rebound in the US dollar index [6][11].