国投证券：新疆、西藏需求景气度提升 供给侧优化民爆龙头受益

Core Viewpoint - The domestic civil explosives industry in China is experiencing significant supply-side optimization, leading to increased industry concentration and improved competitive landscape, with stable demand driven by mining and infrastructure investments [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The civil explosives industry is transitioning to a stable growth phase, with the production value projected to reach 41.695 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.50%, while sales value is expected to be 41.142 billion yuan, down 5.26%. However, total industry profits are anticipated to grow to 9.639 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.04% [1]. - The integration of civil explosives is effectively advancing, with the revenue from blasting services increasing from 29.31% of main business income in 2016 to 78.35% in 2024 [1]. Group 2: Supply-Side Dynamics - The Chinese government is promoting consolidation and restructuring in the civil explosives industry, resulting in a reduction of production enterprises from over 400 in 2005 to fewer than 50 by 2025. The concentration of the industry has significantly increased, with the top 10 companies' production value share rising from 41% in 2018 to 62.47% in 2024 [2]. - The demand for civil explosives is shifting from the eastern coastal regions to the resource-rich central and western regions, with several companies expanding their capacity in these areas through mergers and acquisitions [2]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - Investment in the mining sector is consistently growing, with approximately 70% of industrial explosives used for coal, metal, and non-metal mining. The investment in fixed assets in the mining sector is expected to show positive growth for four consecutive years from 2021 to 2024, particularly in coal and non-ferrous metal mining [3]. - The industrial explosives production in Xinjiang and Tibet is experiencing high growth rates, driven by coal mining, non-ferrous metals, and major infrastructure projects. Significant projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station and the New Tibet Railway are actively progressing, contributing to increased demand for civil explosives in these regions [3].