华安基金：保险风险因子下调，红利板块资金面向好

Market Overview and Key Insights - The Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index increased by 1.81%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.18% and the Hang Seng Technology Index by 1.16% last week [1] - In the A-share market, the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index grew by 0.42%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.28% [1] - On December 5, 2025, the National Financial Regulatory Administration announced adjustments to the risk factors for insurance companies, reducing the risk factor for stocks held over three years in the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index from 0.3 to 0.27, and for ordinary shares listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board held over two years from 0.4 to 0.36 [1][7] Impact of Risk Factor Adjustment - The reduction in risk factors is expected to release approximately 100 billion yuan in capital [7] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan's estimates, the released minimum capital scale under different scenarios is projected to be 141 billion, 457 billion, and 554 billion yuan [7] - If the solvency adequacy ratio remains unchanged, the potential increase in stock investment scale could be 514 billion, 1,669 billion, and 2,015 billion yuan respectively [7] Long-term Investment Trends - The policy adjustment is seen as a marginal impact, with the potential for a larger influx of long-term insurance funds into equity markets [2] - As of Q3 2025, the proportion of insurance capital allocated to stocks and funds has significantly increased to 15.5% [2] - The "long money long investment" policy measures are expected to further enhance the scale of long-term funds entering the market, reinforcing the capital market's stabilizing role [2] Preference for Dividend Stocks - Insurance capital is likely to favor dividend stocks, which are characterized by stable performance, strong cash flow, and consistent high dividends [8] - The adjustment in risk factors for dividend stocks is seen as official recognition of their investment value, likely strengthening insurance capital's allocation towards dividend strategies [8] - The Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index has a dividend yield of 6.63%, compared to 4.39% for the CSI Dividend Index, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.64 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7.25 [8] ETF Product Overview - The Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (513920) is the first ETF in the market with triple attributes of Hong Kong stocks, central enterprises, and dividends, tracking the Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index [9] - The product has a net value of 1.6780 and a scale of 62.67 billion yuan, with a weekly trading volume of 15.61 billion yuan [10] - The National Enterprises Dividend ETF (561060) tracks the CSI National Enterprises Dividend Index, selecting 100 stocks from state-owned enterprises with high dividend yields and stable dividends [10]