汽车视点丨年末“翘尾”未现，出口或成2026年车市主要“增长极”

Core Insights - The domestic passenger car retail market in China experienced a decline in November, with retail volume at 2.225 million units, down 8.1% year-on-year and a slight decrease of 1.1% month-on-month. Cumulatively, from January to November, retail sales reached 21.483 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [1] - The market dynamics show a pattern of "high at the beginning, stable later, and pressure in the fourth quarter," influenced by high base figures from the previous year and a gradual return to normal growth [1] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy significantly supported market growth earlier in the year, but its impact is diminishing as subsidies are phased out, leading to a decrease in daily subsidy applications [1] Passenger Car Market Performance - In November, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) saw 22 manufacturers surpassing 10,000 units, contributing 94.2% to total NEV sales, indicating a concentration in the market [2] - Major domestic brands like BYD, Geely, and Chery led the sales, with respective volumes of 475,000, 188,000, and 112,000 units [2] - The "second-generation" new energy brands are gaining momentum, with their market share reaching 14.65%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] Export Trends - November marked a record high for passenger car exports at 601,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 52.4%. Domestic brands accounted for 525,000 units of this total [3] - Cumulatively, from January to November, exports of domestic brand NEVs reached 1.78 million units, a staggering increase of 139% year-on-year, with NEVs making up 40.6% of total exports [3] - The structure of NEV exports is improving, with the share of plug-in hybrid vehicles rising from 26% to 42% year-on-year [3] Promotional Activities and Market Dynamics - The anticipated year-end "tail effect" in the market did not materialize, although promotional activities remain strong, particularly for traditional fuel vehicles and NEVs [4] - In November, the average promotional discount for traditional fuel vehicles was stable at 24%, while NEVs saw an increase in promotional intensity, averaging 10.1% [4] - The average price reduction for new NEVs from January to November was 24,000 yuan, equating to 11.7% of the vehicle price [4] Inventory and Market Outlook - Due to weak retail performance in November, overall industry inventory increased by 60,000 units, contrasting sharply with a decrease of 220,000 units in the same month last year [5] - The inventory warning index for automotive dealers rose to 55.6%, indicating a decline in industry prosperity [5] - Looking ahead, the expiration of the NEV purchase tax exemption is expected to boost December sales but may create pressure for 2026, potentially leading to a "micro-growth" phase in the domestic market [6] Future Projections - Analysts predict that total passenger car wholesale sales will grow by approximately 2.9% in 2026, with NEVs expected to drive this growth with a projected increase of 19% [7] - The competitive landscape is set to intensify with 173 new models expected to launch, over 90% of which will be NEVs or offer NEV options [7] - The domestic market may enter a deep adjustment phase in 2026, with globalization becoming a critical factor for future automotive company trajectories [7]