【建投橡胶年报】前行不畏荆棘霜，彼岸自有百花芳

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the pricing attributes of natural rubber have shifted from agricultural to industrial characteristics in 2025, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and domestic "anti-involution" trends [2][6][9] - In 2026, global natural rubber demand is expected to grow to approximately 14.8 million tons, a moderate increase of about 1% compared to 2025, despite trade barriers limiting growth [3][4] - The supply side is characterized by a young tree age structure in emerging production areas like Côte d'Ivoire, while aging trees in Indonesia may face production declines, necessitating growth from Thailand to balance global supply and demand [3][4][39] Group 2 - The report forecasts that natural rubber prices will continue to rise in 2026, with RU contracts expected to maintain above 14,000 CNY/ton and NR contracts above 11,700 CNY/ton, while the upper limit for RU contracts is projected to be below 17,500 CNY/ton [4][6] - The natural rubber planting industry is primarily composed of smallholder farmers, with about 90% of global production coming from this sector, indicating a low profit margin due to the long investment cycle [16][17] - Labor costs constitute approximately 60% of the total cost in natural rubber production, highlighting the significant impact of labor dynamics on production costs [17][18] Group 3 - The aging tree structure in traditional producing countries like Thailand is leading to increased production costs, which may shift the global cost curve [3][4][39] - The report emphasizes that the supply of natural rubber is highly dependent on weather conditions, with adverse weather potentially leading to reduced production capacity [51][52] - The natural rubber industry is experiencing a slow capacity clearance process, with the only path for capacity reduction being the natural aging of rubber trees, rather than immediate market-driven adjustments [39][40]