汽车视点丨 需求透支与政策调整共振，年末车市增长承压？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market showed signs of weakening demand in November, with retail sales of passenger cars declining by 8.1% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, indicating a potential lack of year-end "tail effect" in sales [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In November, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.225 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% [1]. - Cumulative retail sales from January to November totaled 21.483 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [1]. - The market experienced varying growth rates throughout the year, with early months showing a 1.2% increase, followed by a 15% growth from March to June, and a slowdown to around 6% from July to September [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Demand - Multiple factors, including the early release of consumer demand, policy adjustments, and changes in sales strategies by automakers, have led to a short-term adjustment in the market [1][2]. - The upcoming changes in policies for 2026, such as the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles and potential changes to scrappage and trade-in subsidies, are expected to impact consumer behavior [2][4]. - The tightening of trade-in and scrappage subsidy policies in some regions has further increased consumer hesitation [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - UBS predicts that the sales growth of domestic passenger cars will slow down significantly in 2026, potentially leading to slight negative growth due to policy changes and high base effects [4]. - The penetration rate of electric vehicles is expected to increase by 6 percentage points in 2026, with exports of electric vehicles remaining a growth driver [4]. - Analysts suggest that the automotive market is entering a phase of slow growth, with a shift in competition from quantity to quality, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [5].