ZFX山海证券:2026油价或跌破60美元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that global oil prices are expected to remain under pressure, with average prices likely to fall below $60 per barrel by 2026 [1][2][4] - The primary driver of declining oil prices is attributed to a continuously ample market supply, coupled with a slowdown in global oil demand growth [1][2][4] - OPEC+ and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have recently increased production, leading to a sustained rise in market supply and gradually increasing inventory pressure, which exerts significant downward pressure on oil prices [1][2][4] Group 2 - Despite some factors that may provide temporary support for prices, such as adjustments in production by certain oil-producing countries or strategic releases and purchases of oil reserves, these factors are considered to have short-term and localized effects that cannot alter the overall market supply-demand trend [1][2][4] - According to the EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, global oil inventories are expected to continue growing in 2026, with Brent crude oil's average price potentially dropping to $54 in the first quarter and around $55 for the entire year [1][4] - Most market institutions maintain a cautious and bearish outlook on oil prices for 2026, with predictions from various banks indicating a gradual decline in Brent crude prices from $58 in the first quarter to $50 by the end of the year, with an annual average of approximately $55 [2][4][5] Group 3 - A Reuters survey anticipates average prices for WTI and Brent crude oil in 2026 to be $59 and $62.23, respectively, reflecting a generally cautious market sentiment [2][5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the average price for WTI may only reach $53, further highlighting the persistent issue of oversupply [2][5] - The overall oil market is expected to remain under pressure in 2026, with a process of global supply digestion anticipated, and a potential recovery in supply-demand balance expected by 2027, which may lead to more stable price adjustments [2][5]