贺利氏预计2026年上半年金、银和铂族金属价格或呈下行趋势

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals industry, represented by Heraeus, predicts a downward trend in gold, silver, and platinum group metals prices in the first half of 2026, following a period of rapid price increases that pushed gold and silver to historical highs and platinum group metals to multi-year highs [1] Group 1: Price Predictions - Heraeus expects that gold prices will have the strongest support due to robust central bank demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions, while silver may experience more volatility due to industrial headwinds [1] - The report indicates that after significant price increases, precious metals prices may need to realign and consolidate [1] - The potential for short-term price increases exists, but a weakening momentum is anticipated to lead to price corrections [1] Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The global market is expected to face simultaneous economic and geopolitical challenges, with major economies like the US and Europe experiencing slowed growth, persistent inflation, and fiscal imbalances that could impact monetary policy [1] - Central banks are likely to maintain low real interest rates, which may support investment demand for precious metals while suppressing industrial demand [1] - Geopolitical risks are expected to remain high, and there is uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on platinum group metals [1] Group 3: China's Role in Demand - China is identified as a key factor in global demand trends, with economic stimulus measures potentially supporting industrial activity, although adjustments in photovoltaic policies may slow silver demand growth [2] - The new five-year plan (2026-2030) in China includes initiatives to promote green hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, which could positively impact the long-term demand for ruthenium and iridium [2] - The precious metals market may be influenced by slowing economic growth, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing transformations in the automotive industry [2]