GTC泽汇资本:贵金属承压 美联储偏鹰风险上升

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing downward pressure due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's potential hawkish stance and the delay in inflation data, which is expected to lead to price volatility in the short term [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Impact - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to begin a monetary policy meeting, with a 90% probability of a 0.25% rate cut expected [4]. - Investors are advised to pay attention to any hawkish signals in the Fed's statements and Chairman Powell's press conference, particularly regarding persistent inflation concerns that may suppress precious metals' upward momentum [4][5]. Group 2: Precious Metals Price Movements - As of December 9, gold futures closed at $4215.50, down $27.60, while silver futures closed at $58.28, down $0.788 [1][4]. - Short-term price fluctuations for precious metals will be influenced by the Fed's policy expectations and the uncertainty surrounding delayed inflation data [1][4]. Group 3: International Market Trends - Global central banks are continuing to increase their gold reserves, with one central bank having added 30,000 ounces last month, bringing total holdings to approximately 74.12 million ounces [2][4]. - This trend indicates that central banks are reinforcing gold asset allocation amid a complex macroeconomic environment, which may provide long-term support for precious metals [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - For gold futures, the next bullish target is to break the historical high of $4433, while the bearish target is around $4100 [5]. - Current resistance levels for gold are at $4247.90 and $4285, with support levels at $4200 and $4150 [5]. - In silver, the bullish target is above $60, while the bearish target is below $55, with resistance at $59.90 and $60, and support at $57.77 and $56.85 [5].