新国标电动自行车果真都在涨价？为何涨？未来会降吗？

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has led to a significant increase in prices compared to the old standard, primarily due to enhanced safety requirements and material upgrades [1][6][11]. Price Increase - New national standard electric bicycles are generally more expensive than their old counterparts, with price increases ranging from 150 to 400 yuan depending on the model [4][5]. - Companies like Aima Technology and Jiangsu New Energy Electric Vehicle Co. have confirmed that the cost of new standard vehicles has risen due to various factors, including material and technology upgrades [4][6]. Reasons for Price Increase - The increase in prices is attributed to higher manufacturing costs, necessitated by the use of new materials such as magnesium alloy and metal sheets, which are more expensive than plastic [6][9]. - The new standard mandates that the total mass of plastic used in electric bicycles must not exceed 5.5% of the total vehicle weight, leading to a shift towards more expensive materials [6][10]. - The production process has become more complex, requiring additional steps and higher costs for molds and manufacturing [7][8]. Material and Production Changes - The transition from plastic to magnesium alloy and metal sheets has resulted in increased raw material costs, with magnesium alloy costing over 20,000 yuan per ton compared to about 10,000 yuan for plastic [6][7]. - The complexity of the manufacturing process has also increased, with new molds for magnesium alloy costing around 10 million yuan, compared to 2 million yuan for plastic molds [7][8]. Future Price Outlook - Several companies anticipate that prices may decrease in the future as production scales up and processes become more efficient [11]. - The introduction of new models and increased production capacity is expected to lead to cost reductions over time [11][12]. - Companies are exploring new materials that could offer cost advantages while meeting safety standards, although these are not yet ready for market [12].