凯投宏观：印度经济将在关税压力下增速“降档”

Core Insights - The report from Capital Economics indicates that India's economy is expected to achieve a robust growth rate of 7.5% in 2025, followed by a slowdown to 6.5% in 2026 and 2027, which remains significantly higher than the average growth rates of other major global economies [1] Economic Growth Projections - The anticipated slowdown in growth is partially attributed to external pressures from high tariffs imposed by the United States [1] - There is a possibility of future reductions in tariff rates, suggesting that the economic situation could change rapidly [1] Policy Measures and Economic Stability - In response to potential economic shocks from high tariffs, Indian policymakers have implemented measures to mitigate the impact on the overall economy [1] - The current account deficit in India is at a sustainable level, with household consumption and public investment identified as the two key pillars of economic growth [1] Future Economic Standing - Based on the existing growth trajectory, India is projected to surpass Japan by 2027, becoming the fourth-largest economy in the world by nominal GDP [1]