杨德龙：这轮慢牛长牛行情肩负三重使命

Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to show steady progress as policies to stabilize economic growth take effect, leading to improved economic data in 2026 [1] - CPI is projected to maintain positive growth in 2026, while PPI is expected to transition from negative to positive growth [1] - More proactive fiscal policies may be introduced in 2026 to stimulate domestic demand, including investment and consumption [1] Capital Market Trends - A significant policy shift for equity assets began on September 24, 2024, leading to a bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points in 2025 [2][10] - Public fund issuance exceeded 1 trillion yuan in 2025, marking the seventh consecutive year of reaching this milestone, with equity funds accounting for over 50% of new fund issuance [2][10] - There is a notable shift in household asset allocation from real estate to capital markets, driven by changes in market conditions [2][10] Investment Opportunities - The current bull market is seen as a vehicle for increasing household wealth, which may subsequently boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market [3][11] - The technology sector is expected to remain a key investment focus in 2026, with the "AI+" initiative creating opportunities across various industries [4][12] - Robotics is highlighted as a prime application of AI in consumer sectors, with expectations for significant performance in 2026 as companies compete for major orders [5][13] Gold Market Insights - Gold prices are anticipated to continue rising in 2026, supported by increasing dollar issuance and growing skepticism about the dollar's value [6][14] - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, which is expected to continue into 2026 [7][14] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may lead to further interest rate cuts, providing additional support for gold prices [7][14] Banking Sector Dynamics - The banking sector has seen significant gains, with many large banks reaching historical highs, as funds shift from deposits to equities in search of stable returns [8][15] - Dividend stocks are expected to remain attractive in 2026, catering to investors seeking stable returns amidst varying risk appetites [8][15] - The A-share market is projected to transition from a structural market to a comprehensive bull market, with more sectors expected to participate in the upward trend [8][15]