全球感知丨去中东当房东？前景广阔但仍需警惕诸多风险

Core Insights - The Middle East real estate market has become a new hotspot for Chinese investors, driven by strong demand and rising prices, particularly in cities like Dubai and Doha [1][2] - Despite attractive rental yields and policy incentives, potential risks such as geopolitical tensions and market volatility should not be overlooked [1][6] Group 1: Market Performance - In Abu Dhabi, residential transaction value is expected to grow by 30% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with prices increasing by 17%, reaching an average of 3.3 million dirhams [2] - Dubai has set a record with 98,726 real estate sales in the first half of 2025, totaling 326.9 billion dirhams, a more than tenfold increase compared to the same period in 2020, with an average residential price increase of 16.6% [2] - The total real estate transaction value in the UAE is projected to approach 900 billion dirhams (approximately 1.8 trillion yuan) in 2024, significantly higher than Shanghai's total transaction value of about 1.3 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Chinese Investor Participation - Chinese buyers accounted for 8% of Dubai's real estate transactions in 2024, rising from ninth to fourth place among international buyers, becoming the third-largest foreign investment source after the UK and India [3] - Aldar Group reported that sales to Chinese buyers reached 1.7 billion dirhams in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total of 1.5 billion dirhams for the entire year of 2024, indicating a threefold increase in purchasing volume over three years [2] Group 3: Investment Appeal - High rental yields and quality resources are common selling points for Middle Eastern real estate developers targeting Chinese investors [4] - In Qatar, the rental yield for the flagship project Gewan Island is maintained at 8%-10%, while average rental yields in prime areas like The Pearl Qatar and West Bay are between 5%-7% [4] - Saudi Arabia's real estate market shows attractive returns, with rental yields in Riyadh at approximately 6.93% and Jeddah at 8.96%, significantly higher than major Chinese cities [4] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Geopolitical risks remain a primary concern for investors in the Middle East, as regional conflicts and economic fluctuations can impact property values and rental income [7][8] - The potential for supply-demand imbalances in overheated markets could lead to price corrections and declining rental yields if population growth does not meet expectations [8] - Currency fluctuations and restrictions on capital flow pose additional challenges for Chinese investors, potentially affecting the profitability of investments [8]