英国央行释放政策信号 汇价走向进一步指引

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has shown slight appreciation against the US dollar, supported by the OECD's upward revision of the UK's economic growth forecast, while market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England are limiting aggressive bullish sentiment [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The OECD has raised its growth forecast for the UK, predicting that the Bank of England will end its current easing cycle by the second quarter of 2026, which strengthens market confidence in the UK's economic resilience [1] - Recent inflation data from the UK has indicated a decline, intensifying market bets on the Bank of England initiating a rate cut in the upcoming meeting, thereby constraining the upward potential of the pound [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its upcoming monetary policy meeting, which has hindered the recent rebound of the US dollar and provided passive support for the pound [1] - The technical analysis indicates a clear rebound trend for the pound against the dollar, with the price currently above short-term moving averages, suggesting some mid-term upward momentum [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - A strong resistance zone has formed at a specific price range, overlapping with previous high trading volume areas, which may suppress bullish momentum unless the price can effectively break through this resistance [2] - Indicators such as MACD show a slowing momentum, while the RSI remains in a neutral to strong zone, indicating that while upward momentum is not fully exhausted, stronger fundamental support is needed for a breakout [2]