多空因素交织 加元静待央行决议指引

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar is experiencing slight depreciation against the US dollar, influenced by strong Canadian employment data and global trade concerns, with market focus on upcoming interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent Canadian employment data significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating a resilient labor market, which strengthens the expectation for a hawkish stance from the Bank of Canada [1]. - The strong performance of the Canadian labor market is believed to alleviate structural inflation pressures, providing more flexibility for the central bank's policy rate path and reducing the likelihood of short-term easing [1]. Group 2: Commodity Influence - The Canadian dollar, being a commodity currency, is closely linked to international oil prices, which have recently experienced a significant decline, limiting the upward momentum of the Canadian dollar [1]. - The weak trend in oil prices has indirectly provided support for the USD/CAD exchange rate, restricting its downward movement [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Market sentiment is cautious, with investors awaiting clear guidance from the Federal Reserve regarding future policy directions, which will directly impact the overall dollar movement and subsequently the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]. - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/CAD exchange rate is in a range-bound structure, with upward momentum slowing and both sides of the market in a rebalancing phase [2]. - Key resistance and support levels are identified, with significant pressure on bulls to break through resistance, while a critical support level is essential to prevent further downward movement [2].