Will 2026 Be a Year of Silver & Copper ETFs?

Group 1: Market Performance - Silver and copper have outperformed gold, with iShares Silver Trust (SLV) gaining about 96% this year and United States Copper ETF (CPER) advancing approximately 31.7% [1] - Over the past month, CPER has increased by 5.2%, SLV has surged 15.1%, while gold bullion ETF GLD has added 1.9% [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's price has nearly doubled this year, primarily due to a historic supply crunch in the London market driven by high demand from India and silver-backed ETFs [2] - Chinese silver inventories have reached their lowest levels in over a decade, contributing to the supply squeeze [2] - Silver has climbed more than 11% to new highs since gold's record on October 20, while copper has advanced nearly 9% [3] Group 3: ETF and Options Activity - Implied volatility on iShares Silver Trust (SLV) reached its highest level since early 2021, leading to a brief "meme-stock" phase for silver [4] - Nearly $1 billion has flowed into SLV over the past week, surpassing inflows into the largest gold fund and adding momentum to spot prices [4] Group 4: Future Outlook for Silver - Silver is trading at an 82% premium to its five-year average, nearing its most stretched year-end level since 1979 [5] - Industrial demand for silver is rising, particularly in green energy and automotive sectors, which is expected to drive higher demand [5] Group 5: Copper Market Fundamentals - Copper's price rally is driven by long-term fundamentals rather than financial speculation, with growing demand for electrification expected to outpace supply [6] - Morgan Stanley projects a 590,000-ton copper market deficit by 2026, with a base case price forecast of $10,650 per ton and a bull case of $12,780 per ton [7] Group 6: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has enacted two rate cuts in 2025 and is likely to cut interest rates further, which typically supports non-yielding assets like silver, gold, and copper [8] - A weaker U.S. dollar, influenced by potential rate cuts, is expected to favor global metal prices, as most metals are priced in dollars [10]