中钢协：铁矿石价格“虚火”再燃 行业各方需理性辨别

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence between iron ore prices and supply-demand dynamics indicates that financial speculation and trade-related activities are irrational factors driving price increases, despite high port inventories [1][3]. Group 1: Iron Ore Price Trends - Iron ore prices have risen from $102.05 per ton on November 7 to $107.80 per ton on December 2, marking a 5.63% increase, while port inventories have accumulated to 159 million tons [1][3]. - The iron ore market is characterized by a loose supply-demand balance, with global shipments at historically high levels and daily iron output from 247 steel mills declining from 2.4564 million tons to 2.3468 million tons by the end of November [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The financial attributes of iron ore have significantly increased, with a growing trading atmosphere in the futures market since mid-November, reflected in rising total open interest and net positions among the top ten long and short positions [1][3]. - The long-short ratio among the top 20 positions has increased from 0.95 in early November to 1.07, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment [1][3]. Group 3: Speculative Behavior - Trade speculation has amplified price volatility, with the PB powder spot price premium rising from zero at the end of October to $1.20 per ton by November 24, driven primarily by traders [2][4]. - Traders with foreign backgrounds are leveraging their information and capital advantages to create a tense atmosphere in both spot and futures markets, leading to a significant divergence between spot prices and actual supply-demand conditions [2][4]. Group 4: Price Outlook - There is no basis for a sustained upward trend in iron ore prices, as the market has been in a range-bound phase since the fourth quarter due to ongoing supply-demand looseness [5]. - The current price increase is attributed to speculative activities rather than fundamental demand, with accumulating inventories and weak actual demand likely to exert downward pressure on prices [5].