Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-09 13:11Core Viewpoint - Haier Smart Home has struggled to escape a low valuation trap, with its market capitalization hovering around 250 billion yuan for four years, while competitors like Midea have achieved significantly higher valuations through strategic narratives and business diversification [2][3][7]. Group 1: Market Perception and Valuation - Investors have two common misconceptions about Haier Smart Home: first, they incorrectly compare it directly with Midea, which has a market cap of approximately 600 billion yuan, leading to the belief that Midea has a dominant advantage in the home appliance market [4][5]. - The second misconception is regarding Haier's hidden assets, as many believe that Haier Smart Home does not represent the entire Haier Group, which has substantial off-balance-sheet assets. However, even when aggregating these assets, the total market value is only around 350 billion yuan [6]. - The core issue of Haier's valuation dilemma is the lack of narrative premium, as the market has grown weary of old stories and prefers companies that can present innovative technological narratives [7][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Efficiency - Under the leadership of Zhou Yunjie, Haier Smart Home's revenue increased from 227.5 billion yuan to over 280 billion yuan, and net profit rose from 11.8 billion yuan to 17.8 billion yuan, yet the market cap has remained stagnant [11]. - Haier Smart Home's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 14 times, which is not low compared to Midea and Gree, but the company's profitability is hindered by high operational costs, leading to a low net profit margin of 6.9% compared to Midea's 9.5% [12][15]. - The company's high expense ratios, including a sales expense ratio of 11.7% and a management expense ratio of 4.2%, contribute to a total expense ratio that has reached 24.18%, significantly higher than Midea's 16.92% and Gree's 14.92% [16][18]. Group 3: Strategic Choices and Globalization - Haier's strategy over the past decade has focused on globalization and acquisitions, which has led to a complex organizational structure and high management costs, ultimately impacting profitability [19][20]. - The company has expanded its global footprint, with nearly 50% of its revenue coming from overseas markets, but the integration of acquired companies has proven challenging, leading to inefficiencies [20][21]. - Unlike Midea, which has focused on internal innovation and B2B transformation, Haier has faced difficulties in managing its expansive global operations, resulting in a scale trap where increased revenue does not translate to higher profits [22]. Group 4: External Market Pressures - Haier faces significant external pressures, including the waning of policy incentives that previously boosted the home appliance sector, with a reported 3.2% year-on-year decline in retail sales for the industry [23][24]. - The high-end segment, once a strong growth driver for Haier, has also shown signs of slowing, with sales growth for its premium brand, Casarte, declining from 14% in 2023 to 12% in 2024 [25]. - Additionally, growth in overseas markets has stagnated, with the Americas and Australia showing minimal growth rates of 2.4% and 1%, respectively, while other major markets are under significant pressure [26].