CNBC Fed Survey: 45% of respondents say the Fed should cut by 25 bps in December

Group 1 - The CNBC Fed survey indicates a significant expectation for a hawkish cut, with 87% of respondents anticipating a rate cut this week, but only 45% believe it should happen, highlighting a historic differential in opinions [1] - The survey reveals that two dissenting votes are expected, with only 35% forecasting a rate cut by January [1] - The primary economic risks identified include high inflation, the potential bursting of the AI bubble, concerns over Fed independence, fiscal deficits, and administrative policy uncertainty [1] Group 2 - The growth outlook is projected to be 2% for this year, with expectations for higher growth next year, while inflation is anticipated to remain above the 2% target [1] - There is an expectation of significant stimulus from record tax refunds in the first half of 2026, which may lead to underestimating the risk of persistent inflation [1] - The job market is not expected to see much downside, with only a slight increase in the unemployment rate forecasted for next year and a decline anticipated in 2027 [1]