Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson: The Fed has more room to cut next year than people think

分组1 - The labor market may have already bottomed, indicating a potential recovery in the economy, with a rolling recession affecting different sectors individually rather than a single collapse [2][6] - The earnings growth for the median company in the S&P is now close to 10%, marking the best growth seen in four years, which supports the notion of economic recovery [6] - The Federal Reserve may have more room to cut rates than previously thought, as the data they rely on is lagged, and a recovery in the private economy is necessary [3][7] 分组2 - There is a potential rotation into underperforming market sectors, which is expected to occur by 2026 [4] - The current economic strategy aims to reduce consumption while increasing investment, which could lead to better productivity and wage growth [11] - The debate around immigration and its impact on wage growth suggests that legal immigration has suppressed real wage growth for lower-income workers, while AI may affect upper-income wage growth [12] 分组3 - The forecast for S&P earnings growth is projected at 17%, with the price-to-earnings ratio remaining stable, allowing for further growth without requiring an expansion of the PE ratio [14] - The risk remains that inflation could return to a level that forces the Fed to react, which could negatively impact the bull market [15]