2 Catalysts That Can Drive Walmart Stock Higher in 2026

Core Viewpoint - Walmart has shown strong performance in 2023, with shares up 25%, outpacing both Amazon and the S&P 500, driven by two key catalysts: online advertising and e-commerce growth [1]. Group 1: Online Advertising - Walmart's global ad business grew by 53% year over year in Q3 FY26, indicating significant potential for revenue growth and profit margin enhancement [4]. - Online ads, while not a large part of Walmart's business, are growing rapidly and can improve profit margins compared to the low single-digit margins typical in the retail industry [3]. - The contribution of online ads is reflected in Walmart's 34% year-over-year net income growth, despite only a 6% increase in revenue [6]. Group 2: E-commerce Growth - E-commerce sales have shown strong performance, with a 27% year-over-year growth in Q3 FY26, demonstrating Walmart's ability to compete effectively with Amazon [7]. - Walmart's stores function as logistics hubs, allowing for efficient nationwide delivery and reduced shipping costs, which supports e-commerce growth [7]. - The increase in e-commerce sales is also expected to drive higher ad revenue, mirroring trends seen at Amazon [8]. Group 3: Consumer Spending - The company's performance is closely tied to consumer spending, which needs to remain resilient for continued revenue growth [9]. - Despite potential consumer pullbacks, Walmart's focus on low prices positions it well during economic downturns, allowing it to thrive even in challenging economic conditions [10]. - Recent data from Adobe Analytics indicates a 7.7% year-over-year increase in Cyber Monday sales, suggesting continued consumer spending, which could bode well for Walmart in 2026 [11].