ZACKS·2025-12-09 14:20Core Insights - The U.S. solar industry is experiencing strong growth, with installations reaching 11.7 GWdc in Q3 2025, a 20% year-over-year increase, despite recent federal policy changes creating near-term uncertainty [1][3][4] - Solar accounted for 58% of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the U.S. grid through Q3 2025, solidifying its position as the dominant source of new capacity [2] - The industry faces challenges from rising tariffs and regulatory changes, which are increasing costs and complicating project planning, yet long-term demand remains resilient with a projected 246 GWdc of installations from 2025 to 2030 [4][5] Industry Overview - The solar industry is divided into two main segments: companies that design and produce solar modules and those that install solar power systems [2] - The industry includes manufacturers of inverters, which convert solar power into electricity for the grid [2] Trends Impacting the Industry - Utilities, businesses, and households are increasingly adopting solar power, particularly systems with battery storage, to enhance energy resilience and mitigate rising electricity costs [3] - Project delays have decreased, with only 20% of planned solar capacity facing delays in Q3 2025, down from 25% a year ago [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates an additional 32 GW of solar capacity to come online between October 2025 and September 2026 [3] Regulatory Environment - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has introduced new federal tax credit limitations and Foreign Entity of Concern requirements, creating uncertainty in permitting and supply chains [4] - The industry is adapting to a fluid policy landscape, with developers facing challenges in planning and procurement due to ongoing regulatory changes [4] Economic Pressures - U.S. tariffs on imported goods are increasing manufacturing costs for solar companies, compounding existing raw material shortages [5] - Despite a 12% average drop in module prices, commercial system pricing rose 9% in Q3 2025 due to increased balance-of-electrical-system and racking costs [5][6] - Labor costs rose 15% year-over-year, and EPC overhead and margins increased nearly 40%, reflecting heightened project risk [6] Market Performance - The solar industry has outperformed both its sector and the S&P 500, with a collective stock increase of 17.7% over the past year compared to 4.7% for the Oils-Energy sector and 16.3% for the S&P 500 [9] - The industry currently trades at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 6.22X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 18.74X [12] Notable Companies - FTC Solar: Focuses on solar tracker systems and has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), with a projected sales increase of 108.6% for 2025 [15][16] - Canadian Solar: A leading manufacturer of solar PV modules, with a Zacks Rank 2 and a projected EPS increase of 25.2% for Q4 2025 [18][19] - Tigo Energy: Provides intelligent solar solutions, with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and a projected sales increase of 91.9% for 2025 [22][23] - Sunrun: Develops residential solar systems, benefiting from a storage-first strategy, with a Zacks Rank 3 and a projected sales increase of 20.7% for 2025 [26][27]