Better Artificial Intelligence Stock: BigBear.ai vs. UiPath

Core Insights - BigBear.ai and UiPath represent two distinct investment opportunities in the AI market, with BigBear.ai focusing on data analysis through edge networks and UiPath specializing in automation via software robots [1] - Both companies have underperformed since their public offerings, with BigBear.ai trading below $7 from an initial $9.84 and UiPath at approximately $18 from an IPO price of $56 [2] BigBear.ai Overview - BigBear.ai develops three AI modules: Observe, Orient, and Dominate, which analyze data and predict outcomes [4] - The company is acquiring Ask Sage for $250 million to enhance its AI ecosystem, expected to close by late 2025 or early 2026 [5] - BigBear.ai's revenue growth has been sluggish, increasing from $146 million in 2021 to $158 million in 2024, hindered by the bankruptcy of its major client Virgin Orbit and competitive pressures [8] - For 2025, BigBear.ai anticipates a revenue decline of 11%-21% to $125-$140 million due to disruptions in government contracts [9] - Analysts project a revenue increase of 23% to $164 million in 2026, but a subsequent decline of 2% to $162 million in 2027, indicating ongoing challenges in core business growth [9] UiPath Overview - UiPath is the largest robotic process automation (RPA) company, automating repetitive tasks and expected to benefit from a projected CAGR of 43.9% in the RPA market from 2025 to 2030 [10] - From fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2025, UiPath's revenue grew from $608 million to $1.4 billion, but growth slowed to just 9% in the last fiscal year [12] - For fiscal 2026, UiPath expects revenue growth of 11%-12% to nearly $1.6 billion, indicating resilience against competition from generative AI platforms [14] - Analysts forecast revenue and adjusted EPS growth of 9% and 13%, respectively, for fiscal 2027, suggesting continued healthy growth despite a deceleration in high-growth rates [15] Investment Comparison - BigBear.ai has an enterprise value of $3.1 billion, trading at 19 times next year's sales, while UiPath, with an enterprise value of $8.4 billion, trades at just five times next year's sales [16] - UiPath's consistent organic growth, rising GAAP profits, and lower valuation position it as a more attractive investment compared to BigBear.ai [16]