中国快消品市场温和回升 新兴渠道引领消费需求新格局

Core Insights - The Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is expected to stabilize in 2025 after a flat performance in 2024, with a year-on-year sales growth of 1.3% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a 3.8% increase in volume and a 2.4% decrease in average prices, which is an improvement from a 3.4% decline in 2024 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The growth in the FMCG market is primarily coming from third to fifth-tier cities, where sales volume increased by 4% to 6%, offsetting a 2% to 3% decline in average prices [1] - Consumers are becoming more rational in their purchasing decisions, focusing on quality-price ratios rather than just low prices, indicating a structural adjustment in the market [1] Group 2: Category Performance - Among the four main FMCG categories, packaged food saw the fastest growth with a 3.4% increase in sales, driven by stable demand for core staple foods and snacks [2] - The household care category grew by 3.3%, supported by stable cleaning habits and innovative products, while personal care grew by 1.1% [2] - The beverage category experienced a decline of 1.1% due to intensified competition and the impact of ready-to-drink beverages [2] Group 3: Channel Dynamics - Emerging channels are becoming the core growth driver in the FMCG market, with offline channels like warehouse membership stores, snack collection stores, and discount stores expanding rapidly, with growth rates of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively [2] - Instant retail channels have reversed last year's decline, showing a 7.9% year-on-year growth in the third quarter, attributed to the popularity of delivery services and increased product variety [2] Group 4: Brand and Retailer Strategies - Retailers are accelerating the development of private labels, which have seen an average annual growth of 44% over the past two years, now accounting for 2% of total FMCG sales in the first three quarters of this year [3] - Brands need to redefine their relationships with retailers and platforms, integrating channel insights into product and market strategies to seize opportunities in the new growth phase of the FMCG market [3]