保持扩张取向 发挥存量增量政策集成效应

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic approach in 2026, focusing on enhancing quality and efficiency through proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary in 2026, with a projected deficit rate around 4%. Special bonds are anticipated to increase slightly compared to 2025, with estimates of 5 trillion yuan in special bonds and approximately 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds [2][3] - Analysts predict that the fiscal policy will focus on "investing in people," with an increase in overall fiscal expenditure and an emphasis on optimizing expenditure structure [2][3] Monetary Policy - There is potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates in 2026, with expectations of 1 to 2 reserve requirement cuts of 50 to 100 basis points and 1 to 2 interest rate cuts of 10 to 20 basis points [3] - Structural policy tools are likely to continue expanding, supporting key areas such as technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance [3] Policy Integration - The meeting highlights the importance of integrating existing and new policies to enhance their effectiveness, suggesting that large-scale economic stimulus measures are unlikely in the short term [4] - The focus will be on optimizing the efficiency of existing policies and resources, including improving credit structures and consolidating various subsidies and support funds [4] Demand-Side Incentives - Demand-side incentives, such as birth subsidies and trade-in programs, are expected to continue, indicating a sustained effort to promote consumption and improve living standards [5] - The emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments suggests a balanced approach to addressing both short-term and long-term economic challenges [5]