Is On Holding a Buy, Hold or Sell After a 35% Jump in the Past Month?

Core Insights - On Holding AG (ONON) has shown exceptional performance in the athletic footwear and apparel market, with a 34.5% increase in stock price over the past month, raising questions about its current valuation and investment potential [1][5][17] Performance Overview - ONON has outperformed the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, which rose by 17.5%, and the broader Retail and Wholesale sector, which declined by 1.2% [2] - The stock closed at $47.02, still below its 52-week high of $64.05 reached on January 30, 2025 [3] Sales Growth - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales increased by 27.6%, while apparel sales surged by 86.9%, with over 1 million units sold in a single quarter [5][8] - APAC sales grew by 109.2% in Q3, contributing nearly 20% of total sales, driven by strong demand in China, Korea, and Japan [5][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is shifting towards higher-margin DTC channels, which now account for 39.6% of total net sales, up from 38.8% the previous year [7] - The apparel segment is viewed as a significant growth avenue, expanding the total addressable market and reducing reliance on seasonal running shoe sales [8] Market Positioning - ONON maintains its premium brand status through elite athlete endorsements and cultural relevance, supported by a strong innovation pipeline [10] - The company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting net sales to grow by 34% year-over-year on a constant-currency basis, up from a previous estimate of 31% [13] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has been revised upward, reflecting positive sentiment around the company [14] - ONON's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 28.11, indicating a premium valuation compared to the industry average of 18.03 [15][16] Investment Outlook - Despite the recent stock rally, ONON is positioned as a premium, innovation-driven brand with a strong DTC channel and expanding apparel business, making it a compelling investment opportunity [17][19]