Bitcoin holds around $92,000 as a ‘hawkish’ Fed cut threatens the crypto rally

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading above $92,000, but strategists are cautious about the potential for a year-end rally due to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The market anticipates a 25-basis-point rate reduction from the Federal Reserve, with increasing bets on a pause in January [2] - Analysts suggest that a hawkish speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could diminish the likelihood of a Bitcoin rally [3] Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting, with investors closely watching Powell's remarks for future policy direction [2] - There is speculation that if Kevin Hassett, viewed as industry-friendly, replaces Powell, it could lead to a market shift from depression to euphoria in 2026 [4] Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin has struggled recently, having fallen from an October high of approximately $126,000, and is currently near the high end of a recent range of $81,000 to $94,000 [4][5] - The token has declined 2% year-to-date, setting it up for its worst annual performance since the 2022 crypto winter, which saw a 64% drop in value [7] - Bitcoin's performance is diverging from the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 16% [7] Investor Sentiment - Analysts note that buyers who purchased Bitcoin in the last six months did so at an average cost basis of around $103,000, leading to a tendency to "sell the rip" rather than "buy the dip" when prices fall below this level [5][6]