MRK Stock Trading Above 200- & 50-Day SMA for 2 Months: Time to Buy?

Core Insights - Merck's stock has shown sustained bullish momentum, trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages since early November [2][8] - The company announced a $9.2 billion acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics, which will enhance its antiviral pipeline [4] - Keytruda remains a significant revenue driver, accounting for over 50% of pharmaceutical sales, with sales reaching $23.3 billion in the first nine months of 2025, an 8% year-over-year increase [6][31] Pipeline and Strategic Developments - Merck's phase III pipeline has nearly tripled since 2021, positioning the company to launch around 20 new vaccines and drugs in the coming years [12] - The acquisition of Verona for $10 billion added Ohtuvayre, a novel treatment for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which has multibillion-dollar commercial potential [15] - Merck is also developing a personalized mRNA therapeutic cancer vaccine in collaboration with Moderna, which is currently in pivotal phase III studies [9] Challenges and Concerns - Sales of the Gardasil vaccine have declined by 40% in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to weak demand in China [16] - Keytruda is set to lose exclusivity in 2028, raising concerns about Merck's reliance on this drug and its ability to diversify its product lineup [19][20] - Competitive pressures are increasing, particularly from dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitors that may challenge Keytruda's market position [20][21] Financial Performance and Valuation - Merck's shares have underperformed the industry and the S&P 500, losing 0.5% year-to-date compared to a 14.1% increase for the industry [22] - The company's price/earnings ratio stands at 11.21, lower than the industry average of 16.68, indicating potential attractiveness from a valuation perspective [26] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have slightly increased, while those for 2026 have declined, reflecting mixed market sentiment [29]