We remain 'constructive' on the market, says Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz

Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain constructive through the end of the year and into the next year, with a focus on earnings-driven growth rather than high beta rallies [1][2] - A transition is anticipated from a market characterized by high price-to-earnings (PE) ratios to one that is more focused on earnings, leading to moderate returns compared to the strong double-digit gains seen in recent years [2] Interest Rates and Market Impact - The 10-year yield is currently at 4.18%, with concerns about market performance if it approaches 4.5%, which has historically been a threshold for broader market struggles [3][4][5] - The correlation between interest rates and market breadth is noted, with rising rates typically leading to a deterioration in market breadth and impacting rate-sensitive sectors first, such as home builders [4][5] Sector Performance - Financials are highlighted as a potential area for broadening market performance, with transportation stocks showing significant improvement since Thanksgiving, indicating a positive outlook for cyclical data [6][7] - Transportation stocks are expected to outperform when manufacturing activity improves, as indicated by anticipatory leading indicators pointing upwards, suggesting a positive trend for PMI manufacturing data in 2026 [7][8]