Can Subscription Services Power MSTR's Long-Term Software Growth?

Core Insights - Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is recognized for its aggressive Bitcoin strategy, but its long-term fundamentals are rooted in its software and enterprise analytics businesses, with subscription services emerging as a key driver for stability and growth [1] Software Business Performance - Growth in the software business is uneven, with declines in product support and other services offsetting subscription gains, indicating pressure on parts of the legacy software portfolio [2] - Despite challenges, the software business maintains strong profitability, supported by healthy margins, making subscription services a stabilizing force amid Bitcoin-driven earnings volatility [3] Subscription Services Growth - In Q3 2025, subscription service revenues increased by 65.4% year-over-year to $46.0 million, representing approximately 36% of total revenues, reflecting the growing adoption of cloud-based analytics offerings [4][11] - The shift towards subscription services is strategically important as recurring revenues provide greater visibility and stability compared to one-time license sales [4] Future Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects modest revenue growth of about 2.1% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026, suggesting that steady growth in subscription services could enhance the software segment's contribution to long-term growth [5] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Microsoft (MSFT) and Salesforce (CRM) leverage strong subscription-based platforms for steady recurring revenue through cloud and analytics services [6] - Microsoft’s Power BI poses a significant competitive threat to MSTR, offering an intuitive interface and integration across its ecosystem, making it attractive for small and medium-sized businesses [7] - Salesforce competes by unifying analytics and CRM through its Tableau-powered ecosystem, enhancing customer relationships and sales processes [8] Stock Performance and Valuation - MSTR shares have declined by 49.7% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Finance sector's 11.7% gain, and lagging behind competitors like Microsoft, which rose by 10.1% [9] - MSTR currently has a Value Score of F, trading at a Price/Book ratio of 1.01X compared to the sector's 4.24X [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSTR's 2025 earnings is $78.04 per share, indicating a recovery from a previous loss of $6.72 per share [16]