Crude Oil Price Forecast: Fails 50-Day Breakout Again – $57.21 Under Threat

Core Viewpoint - The crude oil market has shifted from a brief period of optimism to a clear bearish trend, with multiple failed breakouts leading to a downward price movement towards key support levels [5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 50-day average has proven to be a significant resistance level, with last week's bullish breakout failing and resulting in increased selling pressure [1]. - The current price is approaching a critical support level at $57.21, with a decisive break below this level exposing further downside to the October low of $56.41 and a broader support band down to $55.23 [2]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - A daily close below last week's low of $58.36 would confirm a bearish reversal on a weekly basis, negating the previous bullish signal and reinforcing the downward trend [3]. - For a bullish reversal to occur, a daily close above the lower high of $59.22 and the 20-day average near $59.14 is necessary, with a sustained reclaim of the 50-day average at $59.86 required for any credible upside case [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The crude oil market is currently dominated by sellers, with respect to the falling channel and resistance at the 50-day and 20-day averages keeping bearish sentiment intact [5]. - A convincing push and hold above $59.86 would be needed to challenge the prevailing bearish narrative [5].