日本多行业陷入稀土焦虑

Core Viewpoint - Japan is increasingly concerned about its reliance on Chinese rare earth exports and is taking measures to diversify supply sources and develop alternative materials [1][2] Group 1: Japan's Dependence on Rare Earths - Japan's dependence on Chinese rare earth imports has decreased from approximately 90% to around 60% [1] - Despite the reduction, Japan remains highly dependent on critical rare earth elements like Dysprosium (Dy) and Terbium (Tb), which are essential for electric vehicle drive motors [1] Group 2: Economic Impact of Potential Export Controls - If China implements export controls, five key sectors in Japan—automotive, electronics, wind power, medical devices, and aerospace—will be significantly affected [2] - The automotive industry, particularly electric and hybrid vehicles, relies heavily on rare earth magnets, and past shortages have led to production halts [2] - In the electronics sector, rare earths are crucial for smartphones, semiconductor manufacturing, and hard drives, with China dominating the refining process [2] - Wind power equipment and medical devices, such as MRI machines, also have high dependencies on rare earths, with limited alternatives available [2] - The aerospace sector uses rare earth alloys and magnets extensively, with minimal room for substitution [2] Group 3: Estimated Economic Losses - If Chinese rare earth export restrictions last for three months, Japan's economic loss is estimated at approximately 660 billion yen, equating to a 0.11% decline in nominal and real GDP [2] - Should the restrictions persist for one year, the economic loss could escalate to about 2.6 trillion yen, resulting in a GDP decline of 0.43% [2]