12月会前宽松预期降温！债券交易员押注“缩水”：美联储明年仅降息2次

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that bond traders are betting on a gradual reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve over the next year, reflecting a global trend towards a slowdown or halt in monetary easing policies [1] - Futures and options trading show that traders now expect the Federal Reserve to lower rates by a total of 50 basis points by 2026, with most of the cuts concentrated in the first half of this year [1] - This shift in sentiment contrasts sharply with previous expectations of nearly three rate cuts next year, highlighting a more hawkish outlook emerging in various economies including Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - The market's expectations for a reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve are beginning to reflect in the futures market linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), with the spread between contracts for December 2025 and December 2026 narrowing to its smallest negative value since June [3] - Recent data indicates a significant shift in the SOFR options market, with a notable increase in demand for bullish strategies aimed at capitalizing on anticipated rate cuts in the first quarter of next year [7] - According to a survey by JPMorgan, investor net long positions have dropped to their lowest level in nearly five weeks, with a shift towards neutral positions among clients [4] Group 3 - The options premium for hedging U.S. Treasury risks has shifted towards bearish premiums exceeding bullish premiums, with the 1-month delta value dropping to its lowest level since August [12] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely announce a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate down to 3.5%-3.75% [14] - Despite the expected rate cut, it is anticipated that the meeting will carry hawkish signals, indicating that the threshold for further easing has been raised [14]