Perky, With Bearish Overtones: Crypto Daybook Americas

Market Overview - The crypto market experienced a positive shift on Monday, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising to nearly $92,000, marking a 3% increase over the last 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indexes saw gains of approximately 3.5% [1] Cautionary Signals - Despite the bullish sentiment, there are concerns as the anticipated rate cut is largely considered a certainty, leading to a focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's guidance regarding potential future cuts in 2026. Some market observers are skeptical about aggressive easing, as indicated by the rising 10-year yield, suggesting a hawkish outlook from bond traders [2] - Momentum indicators are also showing bearish trends, with the CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Index indicating a strong downtrend, which began in mid-November, coinciding with a price decline. Additionally, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $87.77 million last week, while spot ether ETFs saw outflows of $65.59 million [3] Underlying Market Dynamics - There are signs of accumulation beneath the surface, with large wallets increasing their holdings and exchange supply being historically low. However, the market remains sensitive to political and macroeconomic factors this week, with potential risks from a hawkish Fed stance, significant ETF outflows, or renewed exchange inflows that could undermine rate-cut expectations [4] Upcoming Market Events - Anticipate volatility in the broader market due to scheduled token unlocks for several cryptocurrencies, each valued over $5 million, within the next week. Additionally, traditional markets have seen a pause in gold's rally around $4,200 per ounce [5]