Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-12-10 00:13Core Viewpoint - The international copper prices have reached historical highs due to increasing concerns over global supply shortages, although a recent pullback was observed on December 9 [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core factor driving the rise in copper prices is the sustained tightness in supply, with several mining companies lowering their mid-term production forecasts and a significant number of cancellation requests for LME warehouse receipts [3]. - Demand for copper is steadily increasing in sectors such as electric vehicles, power grid construction, and AI data centers, contributing to a robust demand outlook [3]. Market Performance - Following a surge in copper prices since November 28, related A-share concept stocks have shown strong performance, with companies like Shengton Mining and Jiangxi Copper seeing cumulative increases of 17.36% and 13.96%, respectively [2]. - On December 9, copper futures on the LME fell over 1%, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropping 1.46%, reflecting a broader market reaction [2]. Long-term Outlook - Institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for copper prices, with expectations of new highs by 2026 driven by factors such as the ongoing U.S. interest rate cycle and geopolitical stability [4]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) anticipates a supply gap of 150,000 tons by 2026 due to limited new copper mining capacity, further supporting price increases [4]. Structural Supply Concerns - While short-term supply is expected to meet demand, there are concerns about potential structural shortages in the long term, driven by economic recovery and growth in emerging industries [5]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with indications of profit-taking among investors, suggesting a need for careful position management [5].